US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent trip to Taiwan has again opened the pandora box of the Cross-Strait conflict.
INTRODUCTION: ONE-CHINA PRINCIPLE VS ONE-CHINA POLICY
To understand the Cross-Strait conflict, one needs to understand the difference between the One-China principle (Yi Ge Zhongguo Yuanze) and the One-China policy (Yi Zhong Zhengce).
To distinguish, PRC (Chinese government) believes in the “One-China principle“.
According to Beijing, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China.
On the contrary, the US follows a “One-China policy“. As per the policy, PRC is the sole legal government of China. Moreover, this policy also denies ROC (Taiwanese Government) claim that Taiwan is a separate sovereign state.
However, Washington rejects the claim of Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan. The US acknowledges but does not recognise the Chinese stance that Taiwan is a part of China.
PELOSI’S VISIT TO TAIWAN
On 2nd August 2022, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei, Taiwan. Nancy Pelosi is an American politician. She is currently serving as the Speaker of the US House of Representatives.
To point out, after Newt Gingrich’s visit in 1997, Nancy Pelosi became the first Speaker to travel to Taiwan.
During her visit, she met with Taiwanese president Tsai-Ing wen. She later went on to meet Taiwan Deputy Speaker Tsai Chi-chang and a group of human rights activists.
Pelosi also addressed Taiwan’s Parliament. While addressing, she evoked Taiwan Travel Act.
She said,
“Forty-three years ago, America made a promise to always stand with Taiwan… today our delegation came to Taiwan to make it unequivocally clear we will not abandon our commitment to Taiwan.”
She added,
“The world faces a choice between democracy and autocracy. America’s decision to preserve democracy here in Taiwan remains iron-clad.”
PELOSI’S ANTI-CHINA STANCE
Over recent decades, Nancy Pelosi has been vocal about the human rights of the citizens oppressed by the government of China.
Notably, the citizens are from: Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet and the Xinjiang region. Chiefly, Uyghurs are citizens residing in the Xinjiang region of China.
In 1991, Pelosi, accompanied by other congressional colleagues and a group of reporters, visited Beijing to protest the killing of students in Tiananmen Square.
Furthermore, in 2015, Pelosi, after taking official permission from the Chinese government, visited Lhasa, the capital of Tibet.
To point out, getting access to Tibet is not easy for foreign officials and media.
TIANANMEN SQUARE MASSACRE
In April 1989, pro-democracy students gathered around Tiananmen Square and started protesting. However, on the night of 3-4 June, Chinese tanks and troops stormed towards Tiananmen Square and opened fire on protesting students.
Thus, killing and arresting many demonstrators. This incident is known as the Tianmen Square Massacre.
MILITARY DRILLS: CHINA’S RESPONSE TO PELOSI’S TRIP
On August 3, 2022, Beijing announced live-fire military drills around Taiwan. Surprisingly, the Chinese launched the exercise in retaliation to the visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan.
Geographically, the distance of the military exercise from the Taiwan coast was just 8.5 nautical miles (17 KM). To emphasize, Taiwan lies 180KM(112 miles) from China’s coast.
However, Taipei objected as the drill location was a part of its territorial waters.
On August 4, 2022, China launched its biggest-ever military drills around Taiwan. This Chinese exercise was the largest to date.
To explain, the PLA’s Eastern Theatre conducted the drill. The Eastern command is the Chinese military Unit responsible for the region adjacent to Taiwan.
During the live-fire drills, China fired ballistic missiles and deployed fighter jets and warships and naval ships around the Taiwan and Taiwan Strait.
The Chinese state media, CCTV, said that “the live-fire sea and air exercises took place in six zones around Taiwan.”
In fact, the exercise involved more than 100 planes, including both jets and bombers. Also, more than ten warships were involved in the drill.
Similarly, on the economic front, China banned the import of citrus fruits and two types of fish products from Taiwan. Further, Beijing banned the export of natural sand to Taiwan.
TAIWAN’S CONDEMNATION
The Taiwan government condemned the exercises. The government said that the drill violated Taiwanese territorial water. Furthermore, the government stated that the live-fire practice led to the air and sea blockade of the island.
Likewise, Taiwan officials also reported that the Chinese launched around 11 missiles into the waters around Taiwan. The authorities identified the missiles as Dongfeng ballistic missiles.
Meanwhile, in response to Chinese drills, Taiwan’s president Tsai said,
“Facing deliberately heightened military threats, Taiwan will not back down.”
She added,
“We will firmly uphold our nation’s sovereignty and continue to hold the line of defence for democracy.”
Surprisingly, The Japanese government lodged a strong diplomatic protest against China, as 5 of the missiles landed in Japan’s EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone).
Notably, the Japanese EEZ zone stretches 200 nautical miles (370 KM) from Japan’s outer territorial waters (seas).
RED DRAGON’S STERN WARNING TO TAIPEI
Since the military exercises, the Chinese Eastern Command theatre has warned of more such live drills. The defence forces said, “in future too, the Division will organize multi-service joint combat readiness patrols and exercises in the Taiwanese airspace and sea areas around Taiwan.”
In fact, after the drills, Chinese jets and drones frequently entered Taiwan airspace. As a result, the Taiwanese air defence shot down one Chinese drone.
Moreover, the Chinese Defence Ministry said in a separate statement that, “the lawmakers’ trip infringed on China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and fully exposed the true face of the United States, as a spoiler and spoiler of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”
The statement added, “The Chinese People’s Liberation Army will continue to train and prepare for war, resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and will resolutely crush any form of Taiwan Independence separatism and foreign interference.”
PAST PROVOCATIONS BY CHINA
MILITARY INSTIGATIONS
The Chinese military has been conducting provocative drills in the Taiwan Strait in the past too. The PLA uses the exercise to demonstrate its military prowess. Thus, trying to conduct psychological warfare against Taiwan.
Notably, the Chinese defence forces have increased incursions into the airspace and waters near Taiwan.
To explain, they have increased the frequency of patrol of PLA fighter jets, bombers and surveillance aircraft over Taiwan ADIZ. Likewise, the patrol of warships and patrolling boats has also increased the waters around Taiwan.
Since September 2020, China has sent its fighter jets routinely into the Taiwanese Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ). Thus, prompting the Taiwanese jets to scramble.
Similarly, in June 2022, the Chinese Foreign Ministry declared that “China has jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait” and that “the Strait cannot be considered as an ‘international waterway’.”
Therefore, Beijing is trying to send stern messages to Taipei that it will not hesitate to use force for the reunification dream.
CHINESE TRICKS TO COERCE TAIWAN
China has been trying to bully Taiwan in every possible way. To elaborate, China suspended Cross-Strait communication with the Liaison officer of Taiwan. The Chinese even restricted tourism between Mainland China and Taiwan.
Further, China always tries to coerce Taiwan through economic sanctions, selected diplomatic measures across many international forums, offensive cyber-attacks, and limited military actions.
Notably, it also interfered in the 2020 Taiwan Presidential election. For instance, the Chinese started to spread misinformation to damage Tsai’s presidential prospect (DMK candidate) and boost the KMT candidate’s prospect. The Chinese did this through social media and certain Taiwanese media outlets under its influence.
Similarly, China has conducted cyber-attacks on certain government offices and pressurised multiple airlines and hotels to show Taiwan as a Chinese province.
CHINA’S VEILED CAUTION TO OTHER NATIONS
China has intimated other countries from continuing their relations with Taiwan. For instance, it cut off its trade ties with Lithuania, as the nation allowed the opening of a Taiwan representative office in Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital.
Similarly, countries such as El Salvador, the Dominican Republic and Panama (Latin American nations), Nicaragua (a Central American Nation), Soloman Island, and Kiribati(both Countries in Oceania)earlier had a diplomatic relationship with Taiwan.
However, all these countries switched their diplomatic relationship from Taiwan to Beijing.
Thus, showing that Beijing is leaving no stone unturned to woo back nations that officially support Taiwan. Interestingly, the method adopted by Beijing can be through “financial aid” diplomacy or military pressure.
TAIWAN AND THE “EAGLE-DRAGON” COMBAT
Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has angered Beijing. Thus, bringing Taiwan into a crossfire between US and China.
However, the Chinese are vulnerable in the semiconductor industry. To point out, Chinese companies are dependent on Semiconductors produced in Taiwan.
As a result, this may hasten the Chinese regime to invade Taiwan, gain access to the semiconductor giant, TSMC and deny the US access to the chips. But, Beijing is aware of the consequences it can face if it decides to invade Taiwan.
Meanwhile, both Taiwan and US continue to boost their defence engagements to constrain China. Notably, the US continues to increase its presence in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea by conducting freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs).
Therefore, signalling to China that Taiwan is not Ukraine.
Top US defence analysts have raised concern over the PLA growing military capabilities and assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific Region. They further said that the “deteriorating situation in Cross-Strait relations (Taiwan-China) would lead to a US-China conflict”.
In short, on one side, China has signalled that it can use force for reunification. On the other side, the US has promised to defend Taiwan if China attacks.
Hence, leading to the ‘Eagle-Dragon‘ confrontation in the Indo-Pacific region.
US BLUEPRINT TO COUNTER CHINA: ISLAND CHAIN STRATEGY
The invasion of Taiwan by China would give the Chinese access to an important port, Kaohsiung and entry into the Pacific Ocean. As a result, this access will bring China closer to Guam.
To point out, Guam is an American territory famous for its American Naval and Air bases.
Another critical point is that Guam is halfway to Hawaii. Hawaii is an American State. Moreover, Hawaii has a US Garrison and serves as a platform for Pacific theatre.
Thus, the invasion of Taiwan will bring both Guam and Hawaii under the PLA’s radar.
Therefore, to limit China’s expansion, the US has an Island Chain strategy, which includes US-friendly territories.
The Island Chain strategy primarily focuses on containing the Chinese ambition to control the Indo-Pacific Ocean.
Notably, the location of Taiwan is in the first island chain of defence against PLA aggression. Thus, securing Taiwan from Chinese attack is a top priority for the Americans.
Currently, the US has three island Chains. The plans for 4 & 5 Island chains are under the pipeline.
THE ISLAND CHAINS
- The First Island Chain comprises the Kuril Islands, the Japanese Archipelago, the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, the northwest Philippines and ending at Borneo.
- The Second Island Chain consists of the Bonin Islands, Volcano Islands, Mariana Islands, western Caroline Islands and Western New Guinea.
- The Third Island Chain refers to the Aleutian Islands running through the centre of the Pacific Ocean through the Hawaiian Islands, American Samoa, and Fiji culminating in New Zealand.
TAIWAN’S DEFENCE PLAN: THE PORCUPINE DOCTRINE
In 2017, the Taiwan defence establishment adopted the “Porcupine Doctrine“. To point out, William S Murray, a US Naval War College research professor, gave this theory. The theory says that the state forces should avoid focusing on the opponent’s strengths and must exploit its opponent’s weaknesses.
Furthermore, the Doctrine focuses on resisting the enemy in the coastal area, at sea, and on the opposite shore. Thus, wiping the enemy out on the beachhead.
In fact, the Doctrine aims at dodging enemy strength and exploiting their weaknesses.
To elaborate, the ‘Porcupine Doctrine’ has two defensive layers.
Given below is the description:
- Defensive layer one (outer layer): This includes intelligence gathering and observation of the enemy’s position. By doing so, the defence forces will be ready to prevent a surprise attack.
- Behind the defence forces, there will be plans for guerrilla warfare at sea and aerial levels.
- The guerrilla war will use sophisticated aircraft provided by the US. Moreover, the guerrilla campaign at sea will use missile launchers, helicopters and agile missile-armed small ships. Thus, making it difficult for the Chinese to land on the Island.
- Defensive layer two: The second layer relies on the geography and demography of the country.
- To explain, cliffs and jungles surround the beaches of Taiwan. Thus, making the coastline terrain a natural defender.
Since implementing the ‘Porcupine Doctrine’, Taiwan has amassed a stockpile of anti-air, anti-tank, and anti-ship weapons. Similarly, it has purchased ammunition such as UAVs (Unmanned aerial vehicles) and low-cost CDCMs (coastal defence cruise missiles).
Ultimately, the Taiwanese establishment aims to destroy the expensive Chinese naval fleet and its naval equipment.
INVASION OF TAIWAN: WILL IT BE EASY FOR CHINA?
Beijing knows that the invasion of Taiwan is not easy as it seems.
To elaborate, China is aware of the following points:
Firstly, the US is right behind Taiwan to protect it. In short, The US has and will provide Taiwan with sophisticated weapons and intelligence.
Therefore, enhancing Taiwanese defence and counter-attack preparations.
Moreover, The Chinese forces are mindful that they would face fierce aerial and naval bombardment from the Taiwanese defence forces.
Secondly, the Chinese are over-dependent on Taiwan-made chips. Thus, quick invasion and controlling TSMC will be an upheaval task for China. Furthermore, the invasion can halt the functioning of many Chinese companies.
Thirdly, Taiwan is a strong economy and can comfortably meet its demand for defence acquisition. Also, the citizens of Taiwan oppose the Chinese reunification theory. As a result, they can play a significant role in guerrilla warfare.
Lastly, Taiwan has its natural barriers in terms of topography. 70% Island consists of a chain of rugged, densely forested mountains. Thus, posing a challenge for the Chinese forces to unload tanks, artillery, armed personnel and carriers.
To sum up, the invasion of Taiwan will not be a China-Taiwan war but a direct US-China confrontation.