The Russia-Ukraine conflict resulting in the invasion of Ukraine has led to a geopolitical shift in the new world order.
THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR: AN INTRODUCTION
In April 2021, Russia sent 1 lakh soldiers to the Ukrainian borders. Thus, giving a hint of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. But the Russians stated that the soldiers were there for military exercise and would return to bases once the drills concluded. However, thousands of soldiers remained at the border. Keeping this military build-up along its borders in mind, the present Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the NATO leadership to induct Ukraine into NATO. After the Ukrainian request to NATO, Putin issued a set of demands stating that NATO must permanently ban the inclusion of Ukraine into NATO.
However, on January 26, 2022, the US and NATO responded that they were not in a position to stop Ukraine from joining NATO. On February 24, 2022, Russian began the full-scale invasion of Ukraine resulting in a full-fledged Russia-Ukraine war.
Over the last two decades, after Putin became Russian President, the Russia-Ukraine hostility was quite visible. Earlier, it was more psychological warfare than direct military confrontations. However, over the past few years, Russia started taking military actions such as the 2014 Crimea annexation and a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
To point out, In an article published in mid-2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated,
“Russian and Ukrainian people share the same heritage and religion. Therefore they are one people.”
RUSSIA-UKRAINE HISTORY: A TIMELINE
Both Russia and Ukraine shared heritage for more than thousands of years ago. Kievan Rus’ was the first East Slavic state. It was the birthplace of both Ukraine and Russia. Modern-day Kyiv, currently the capital of Ukraine, is believed to be the centre of Kievan Rus’.
TIMELINE OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE HISTORY
- 988AD – In Chersonesus, a Crimean city. The grand prince of Kyiv, Vladimir I, was baptized after he accepted the orthodox Christianity faith. Consequently, Orthodox Christianity becomes the state religion.
- 1237-1242 AD – Invasion of Keivan Rus by Batu Khan(Mongol warrior).
- 1480AD – All Keivan Rus principalities were made vassals of the Golden Horde after their submission to Mongol rule.
- 1480-1505 AD– Ivan III frees Russia from the Mongols. Establish the Muscovite rule.
- 1527-1584 AD – Ivan IV expands the Muscovite rule into Siberia.
- 1605-1618 AD– Polish-Muscovite war occurs, resulting in the invasion of Kievan Rus by Lithuanian and Polish armies.
- 1730AD – A battle between Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth broke out due to which the Eastern land of Dnieper River came under Russian Tsars. Furthermore, the land to the West of the Dnieper River or the right bank was in control of Poland.
- 1793AD – Annexation of the right bank of the Dnieper River(Ukraine) by the Russian Empire.
After the annexation, the implementation of the Russification policy in Ukraine was done.
Under Russification, firstly, the use and study of Ukrainian languages were prohibited. Secondly, the population was forcefully converted to the Russian Orthodox faith.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE HISTORY IN THE 20th CENTURY
- 1922 – After the communist revolution of 1917 (Russian Revolution), Ukraine fought a civil war and got absorbed into the Soviet Union in 1922.
- 1932-33 – Soviet leader Stalin masterminds the famine. The famine caused starvation and the death of millions of Ukrainians. Moreover, many Russians and non-Soviet citizens who were non-proficient in the Ukrainian language were sent to the Eastern part of Ukraine to repopulate the region.
- 1991 – Ukraine becomes an independent nation after the fall of the Soviet Union.
- 1994 – Signing of the Budapest Memorandum.
- A historical year for Ukraine that needs mentioning. Globally, Ukraine had the 3rd largest nuclear stockpile after the Soviet disintegration. Under the deal, Ukraine needed to trade away its nuclear arsenal. The arsenal included warheads, ICBM, etc. But with a clause, that the UK, US and Russia would respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty.
THE EASTERN-WESTERN DIVIDE IN UKRAINE & ITS IDEOLOGICAL IMPACT
After its Independence, Ukraine became a democratic and capitalistic state. The sense of unifying as a nation was a difficult task as the feeling of Ukrainian nationalism was more deep-rooted in the Western population than in the Eastern population. The Eastern population longed for the earlier Soviet Era of Communalism.
Adrian Karatnycky, a Ukraine observer and former associate at the Atlantic Council stated,
“The biggest division factor among the population is between those who consider Soviet rule as tragedy and others who support the Russian Imperial rule.”
Moreover, by studying the ecological maps of Ukraine, the political division in Ukraine can be seen. The Northern and Western regions of Ukraine have more forest areas. Unlikely, the Southern and Eastern parts of Ukraine have more fertile agricultural soil.
The Steppes and forest mark a division between the East and the West. Interestingly, this geographical division was also visible in the 2004 and 2010 Ukrainian Presidential elections. The Western population is Ukrainian-speaking and Catholic. And the Eastern population is more Russian-speaking and Orthodox.
To point out, geopolitically, the people from East Ukraine support Russia-leaning leaders because Eastern Ukraine came under Russian control much earlier than Western Ukraine.
On the other hand, the Western Ukrainian population supports Western-leaning leaders. For centuries, Western Ukraine was under the influence of shifting European powers, such as the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Poland, and Lithuania.
RUSSIAN GAIN FROM UKRAINE’S EAST-WEST DIVIDE
Russia has sympathizers in Ukraine. It can be seen in 1999 when Ukraine supported NATO operations in the Balkan. During the NATO operation, Kyiv closed its air space for a few hours, due to which Russian planes were not allowed to fly to Pristina (Kosovo). However, this move by the Ukrainian government caused an angry backlash from several Ukrainians. Because most Ukrainians still consider themselves a part of the Orthodox Slavic identity.
In Ukraine, approximately 30% of the total population speaks Russian. And a large number of people have soft corners for the country. This sympathy is an internal support base for Russia. Although, economically and geopolitically, Ukraine tilts towards the West. But Putin resists this.
In 2014, after the Ukrainians disposed of pro-Russian President Yanukovych due to protests. Russia ran out of patience and captured Crimea. Furthermore, it supported Russian-speaking rebels in the Donbas region. Donbas regions include Donetsk and Luhansk (the Eastern part of Ukraine). Since then, 14000 people have died due to battles between the Ukrainian military and separatists.
Apart from psychological warfare and military aid to rebels, Russian hackers frequently attack Ukrainian infrastructures such as government websites and the electricity grid. The major cyber attack in 2016 on the electricity grid caused a blackout in Ukraine. Therefore, the Russia-Ukraine conflict exists from cyberwarfare to military warfare.
RUSSIAN ASPIRATION FOR EUROPEAN IDENTITY
Looking back in history, apart from Prussia, the Austrian-Hungarian empire, Lithuania, Britain and Ottoman Empire. Russia was also a part of the European order. However, the Bolshevik revolution created a distance between Russia and Europe. Russia also supported multiple revolutions in European countries, which eventually led to ideological differences resulting in First World War in 1917.
Yet, in the Second World War, Europeans needed Russians to defeat Germany. But after the Second World War, this alliance broke down. Hence, this resulted in hostile relationships between Russia and its other Soviet allies and Western countries.
The year 1991 marked the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War period. However, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Kremlin thought of inclusion in Europe. But, the constant neglection of Russian demands made it more hostile towards the West.
KREMLIN’S NOSTALGIA FOR SOVIET UNION
Russia always considers the dissolution of the Soviet Union as a blunder in history. To undo this legacy, Putin is making an effort to bring back various ex-Soviet nations with similar military and political interests. The Russians and many former Soviet nations have formed a Central Security Organization and Eurasian Union. In contrast, the Western world doesn’t want Russia to have a sanitized area around it.
However, many former Soviet countries such as Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are disinterested in returning to the old Soviet bloc. Interestingly, 14 of the former Soviet countries have joined NATO. These countries have an inclination toward Western ideologies.
To point out, Kremlin wants Russia to be considered a European power rather than global power. Ultimately, the West’s current effort to tame China in the Indo-Pacific region by engaging with Russia, approaching Russia to settle matters in Europe, and more recently in Afghanistan has made Russia feel like an important role player in geopolitical scenarios.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CAUSE OF CONFLICT: THE NATO FACTOR
Russian President Putin has always shown displeasure with the expansionist policy of NATO. Especially, Ukraine’s effort to join NATO has been a concern for Russia.
Historically, for geopolitical dominance, both USSR and US were engaged in the Cold War for 45 years. The expansion of NATO in Eastern and Central Europe has always intimidated the Russians. Because the region is considered a buffer zone between Russia and the West.
RUSSO-GEORGIAN WAR
The 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia was the consequence of NATO expansion in Eastern Europe. To elaborate, in August 2008, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili started cracking down on Moscow-backed separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia (Then part of Georgia). This crackdown caused the Russo-Georgian war.
After 12 days of the war, South Ossetia and Abkhazia were declared Independent.
KREMLIN’S DEMAND
The main demands of the Kremlin(seat of the Russian government)are:
- Moscow wants written assurance from the west that Ukraine will not be a part of NATO.
- Partial demilitarization of Ukraine.
- Recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea by Kyiv.
- Russia wants NATO to keep its military within pre-1997 borders in Europe, especially in the Balkans and Romania. It means the dismantling of military infrastructure created by NATO in its Eastern European members. Because Moscow fears that NATO can deploy strike weapons such as missiles near Russian borders.
ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA
In 2014, a group of armed men encircled Simferopol and Sevastopol airports (located in Crimea). In addition, masked armed men raised the Russian flag in the Crimean parliament. The armed men were Russian soldiers as well as Russian-backed separatists.
On 6th March 2014, the Crimean parliament voted to break away from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation. Consequently, on 16th March, a public referendum was held. In the referendum, 97% of the Crimean residents voted for secession, resulting in the annexation by Russia.
As a result, On 18th March, In Duma(Russian Parliament), Putin declared the Russian annexation of Crimea. And Immediately, the US and many European Nations imposed a sequence of economic sanctions on Russia.
THE DONBAS REGION: BONE OF CONTENTION BETWEEN RUSSIA-UKRAINE
DONBAS REGION: AN INTRODUCTION
The Donbas region lies in Eastern Ukraine. The region has a considerable Russian-speaking population. Putin claims that the population of Donbas is pro-Russian. He further claims that they will be a victim of genocide by the people with pro-Western Ideology. And it’s Moscow’s responsibility to protect the people of the Donbas region.
In April 2014, violence broke down in the Ukraine region of Donbas (including Donetsk and Luhansk). Many Russian-backed separatists captured Ukrainian government buildings in the Donbas region.
During the violence, Around 40,000 Russian soldiers gathered around the Eastern Ukraine border. However, just after the violence, there was a declaration of Russian-backed People’s republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. Since 2014 there has been a constant battle between the Ukrainian army and rebels.
In 2015, an agreement named Minsk Agreement was signed by Russia, France, Germany, and Ukraine. The agreement was signed in order to stop the fight. The Russian-backed separatists in Donbas also signed an agreement with the Ukrainian military. The accord incorporated a buffer zone for heavy weapons around the border area.
But, after a short period, the fighting resumed between the separatists and the army.
RUSSIAN INFLUENCE IN DONBAS REGION
The Russians have a presence in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
To begin with, firstly, the Russians have been providing Russian passports, financial salaries, and aid to the Donbas region.
Secondly, the Russians lifted trade curbs from Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
Thirdly, both regions use the Russian currency rouble as an official currency.
Fourthly, local schools teach as per the Russian curriculum and not the Ukrainian curriculum.
Lastly, Russia supplied the Sputnik vaccine to Donetsk during the pandemic.
Surprisingly, in February 2022, Putin in the Duma(Russian Parliament) signed a Decree. The Decree declared the Donetsk Republic and the Luhansk Republic in the Donbas region as Independent states.
The Ukrainian objection to Russian interference in the Donbas, and Russia’s ignorance of such demands have aggravated the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
THE BATTLE FOR MARIUPOL: THE ‘NOVOROSSIYA’ THEORY
In 2014, while talking to reporters, Putin invoked ‘Novorossiya’. Looking back at history, under Tsarist rule, Novorossiya (New Russia) was a region that included territories such as Mariupol, Odesa, Kharkiv, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Currently, these cities are in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.
Russian President Putin while invoking the Novorossiya, further stated,
“The protection of current inhabitants of the Novorossiya cities is the responsibility of Russia.”
On February 24, 2022, Russian began the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. After the Invasion, Russia started attacking major Ukrainian cities. However, the prime targets were the cities of Kharkiv, Kyiv, and especially Mariupol.
In 2014, The Kremlin-backed separatists failed to capture the Mariupol city as they were thwarted by the Azov regiment. But, the Russian forces now want to overturn its past defeat in Mariupol.
MARIUPOL: THE CITY
Mariupol lies in the Donetsk Oblast region of Ukraine. The geographic position of Mariupol is strategic to the Russians. To point out, Mariupol connects separatists-held Donbas and Russian-controlled Crimea by acting as a land bridge between them.
To emphasize, Mariupol is a major city in Ukraine. As it is the home of Ukraine’s largest seaports and Europe’s two largest steel and iron plants — Azovstal and Ilyich. Ukraine exports ferrous metals and wheat grains from the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk. Notably, Russian forces captured Berdyansk just after few days after the Russian invasion.
In 2014, after the annexation of Crimea, Ukraine lost much of its Black Sea coastline, along with five seaports. Furthermore, the Ukrainians were refused access to the Kerch Strait by the Russians. Due to this, the Ukrainian ships had to wait for long hours due to Russian inspection. Eventually, the ports reported a loss of $400 million.
In fact, except for Mariupol, the entire coastline of the sea of Azov and Kherson city is already under Russian control. The victory over Mariupol will give Russia control over the entire Sea of Azov coastline and much of the Black Sea coastline. Additionally, the seizure will affect Ukraine’s maritime commerce and metal production.
Therefore, leading to significant financial losses for Ukraine.
AZOV REGIMENT: THE NEO-NAZI FIGHTERS
In 2014, Azov regiment fighters recaptured Mariupol from Russian-backed forces. Later on, the National Guard of Ukraine inducted the Azov Battalion. The headquarter of the Azov Battalion is in Mariupol.
The Azov regiment fighters have a far-right nationalist ideology and harbour neo-Nazi views. For this reason, Putin exploits this neo-Nazi ideology. Furthermore, he claims to protect the Russian-speaking populations from ethnic cleansing caused by the Azov regiment.
A victory over such a regiment will solidify his stance on his statement.
To summarize, a victory in Mariupol will be a step closer to Putin’s dream of Novorossiya. And capturing Mariupol will give the Russians a maritime advantage. In fact, as per British Intelligence sources, it will be a morale booster for the Russian forces.
BATTLE FOR KHARKIV
The city of Kharkiv lies in Eastern Ukraine near the Russian border. The Russian forces are planning to capture the city of Kharkiv due to two reasons:
- Firstly, the presence of the pro-Russian population is considerable.
- Secondly, it is the only city in Ukraine, which is significantly similar to the Russian accent and lifestyle.
UKRAINE: A SHIELD OF EUROPE OR A BUFFER ZONE?
From the European point of view, they usually consider Ukraine as a buffer zone between the NATO bloc and Russia. A Buffer zone is usually a neutral area that separates hostile forces or nations. Therefore, it reduces the risk of conflict near border areas.
As former Georgian Ambassador Temuri Yakobashvili said,
“The militarization of Ukraine is vital because only Ukrainians know how to fight Russians.”
To put it another way, only Ukrainians can engage with Russians. But only if they are provided with advanced weaponry. However, Ukraine’s ideological slant toward the West makes Moscow insecure.
Since Ukraine’s independence from the Soviet Union, Ukraine has undergone a transition from a Soviet republic to a Capitalist society. Ultimately, aiming for businesses privatization and improving economic opportunity.
Furthermore, various pro-West Ukrainian Presidents like Petro Poroshenko and Viktor Yushchenko introduced policies that focused on lessening Ukrainian’s dependence on Russian defence and energy.
Generally speaking, the utmost concern of Russia is Ukraine’s membership in NATO, as Kremlin sees NATO as a threat to its sovereignty. Thus, the Russians have gone to war with Ukraine to prove its military prowess to the West and Europe.